nile river climate change

Water resources. Statistical bias correction of regional climate model simulations for climate change projection in the Jemma subbasin, Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Their research shows how climate change can stress a society, causing a chain reaction of drought, famine, instability, and conflict, and it provides useful lessons for the urgency of acting to avert such developments today. . There is a growing anxiety about climate-induced changes of the river's discharge, especially because Ethiopia, which generates 85% of the annual Main Nile flow (Sutcliffe and Lush green fields blanket northern Egypt's Nile Delta, but the country's agricultural heartland and its vital fresh . Throughout the twenty-first century, climate change is predicted to increase the standard deviation of the Nile's flow by approximately 50 percent, indicating a doubled likelihood of both flooding and drought. Percentage change in the frequency of the PDSI for extreme drought levels, due to The Nile has been the lifeline for Egyptian culture since the Stone Age. Breene M. Kerr, professor of hydrology and climate, Elfatih Eltahir, professor of civil and environmental engineering, and Mohamed Siam, a postdoctoral associate, have revealed that climate change will mean greater variability in the Nile River flow in the next century compared to the last; with more extreme droughts and heavier floods. By AGENCY. We analyze observations on recent change in the flow regime. informing the impact of climate change at smaller scale (cf. of climate change on the Nile River, incorporating results from 11 GCMs and two emission scenarios, was conducted by Beyene et al. Cordaid; Posted 24 Nov 2020 Originally published 23 Nov 2020 Origin In this thesis, we investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrology and climate of the Nile basin. From headwater tributaries to international river: Observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin, Global Environmental Change, 15, 99-114, 2005. [2010]. The source of this water lies far to the south, from rainfall on Ethiopian hills (86%) and equatorial lakes (14%). [5] deBoer, Climate change and impacts on the extreme rainfall over the Blue Nile Region, KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands, 2007. [20,21]). Even though it covers only 10% of the Nile basin, the Blue Nile generates about 85% of the water that reaches Egypt and Sudan. The book includes analysis and approaches that will help provide . Keywords: Climate change, regional scale modelling, regional scale adaptation, Nile River basin, floods, water scarcity. In a pre-recorded speech delivered on the sidelines of the 76th Session . Rising sea levels, brought on by climate change, are the most obvious of them. By Leonard O. Akwany Natural hazards such as floods and drought have become more prevalent in the Nile River Basin - as a result of climate and weather changes - resulting in massive disasters . The MIT report says that instead of arguing about the dam, more focus should be given to the potential impacts of climate change and population growth along the Nile. Keywords: Climate change, regional scale modelling, regional scale adaptation, Nile River basin, floods, water scarcity. The changes in precipitation extremes were derived from the most recent AFROCORDEX climate data base projection scenarios compared to the reference period . 14 . The Nile basin is one of the most water-limited basins in the world. The results they reported for the Blue Nile subbasin are relevant for the Lake Tana region. Nile River - Nile River - Climate and hydrology: Almost no area within the Nile basin experiences a true equatorial or a true Mediterranean type of climate. This article reviews the multidisciplinary literature on the Nile to understand more about the outlook for this geopolitically significant river basin. The present research assesses the impact of climate change for the Gilgel Abay River, one of the major tributaries of the Lake Tana - the source of the Upper Blue Nile River. WNV is the most widely distributed known arbovirus in the world. Studies indicate that Africa's agriculture is negatively affected by climate change (Pearce et al., 1996, McCarthy et al., 2001).Adaptation is one of the policy options for reducing the negative impact of climate change (Adger et al., 2003, Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008).Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or . change on the Nile river flow. Observable effects of climate change on water Although climate change impacts vary by region, it is well established that it influences the distribution of vectors, pathogens of vector-borne diseases and the habitat suitability for vectors. The Nile is one of the world's major rivers; its basin is shared by 11 countries and is home to some 300 million people. The upper Blue Nile River Basin is a good example because its downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, depend solely on Nile waters for their economic development. This paper aims to study climate change impact on the hydrological extremes and projected precipitation extremes in far future (2071-2100) period in the Upper Blue Nile River basin (UBNRB). As the globe warms, mosquitoes will roam beyond their current habitats, shifting the burden of diseases like malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya and West Nile virus. Here, we use recent observations and climate models simulations to support the hypothesis that both the long-term mean and interannual variability of the Nile river flow may increase due to climate change. 14 . Climate change affects the water resources of the Blue Nile basin in many ways. . Climate change predicted to increase Nile flow variability Climate change could lead to overall increase in river flow, but more droughts and floods, study shows These recorded rainfall and temperature in the Upper Nile basin between 1961 and 2005. Lush green fields blanket northern Egypt's Nile Delta, but the country's agricultural heartland and its vital fresh . : The book provides a comprehensive overview of the hydrology of the Nile River, especially the ecohydrological degradation and challenges the basin is facing, the impact of climate change on water availability and the transboundary water management issues. By 2030, the Dartmouth researchers write, the flow of the Nile will regularly fail to meet demand, and between 20% and 40% of the . In particular, we predict and explain the future changes in interannual variability and long-term mean of the flow in Nile river. (2017, April 24). The Nile river basin has four main tributaries: the Upper Blue Nile, Atbara, Sobat and Bahr el-Jebel (Fig.1). Climate change will make it harder than ever to bank on the flow and annual flood of the River Nile. Water scarcity will increase as the climate continues to change The study comes amidst a 10-year dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over water supply on the Nile River. This 30,000,000-million-year-old river is integral to . Climate change predicted to increase Nile flow variability: Climate change could lead to overall increase in river flow, but more droughts and floods, study shows. Researchers forecast different scenarios depending on the extent of climate change. The country enjoys, so far, the use of 55.5 billion m3 of water from the river every year, based upon an agreement signed with Sudan in the year 1959. Egypt is considered highly vulnerable to climate change due to its primary dependence on the Nile River, which serves needs for potable water, agriculture, industry, fish farming, power generation . Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. 2. only source of water -the River Nile- provides more than 95% of all water available to the country. Water is one of several current and future critical issues facing Africa and the Nile Basin in particular. In this thesis, we investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrology and climate of the Nile basin. The results provide a basis for evaluating future impacts of climate change on the upper Blue Nile River (Abay River). Block, P. J. Climate change affects water resources availability of international river basins that are vulnerable to runoff variability of upstream countries especially with increasing water demands. DOI: 10.1007/S10584-009-9693- Corpus ID: 54692578; Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios @article{Beyene2010HydrologicIO, title={Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios}, author={Tazebe Beyene and Dennis P. Lettenmaier and Pavel Kabat}, journal={Climatic Change}, year . Being able to predict the amount of flow variability, and even to forecast likely years of reduced flow, will become ever more important as the population of the Nile River basin, primarily in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, is . The "Adapting to climate change induced water stress in the Nile River Basin" project was launched in March 2010 as a partnership between UNEP and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), sponsored by SIDA. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile River's waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) Water supplies from rivers, lakes and rainfall are characterized by their unequal natural geographical distribution . ScienceDaily . Lush green fields blanket northern Egypt's Nile Delta, but the country's agricultural heartland and its vital freshwater resources are . Nile River on Egypt Introduction Methods Currently, the effects of climate change are already felt by people across Africa. Impacts of climate change on Egypt. Our aproach to study the impacts of climate change on the Nile includes: Enhancing our understanding of the hydroclimatology of the Nile basin and the transport mechanism of the moisture from the Indian Ocean to it and how could it be affected by the climate changes. 1. III . While the Nile basin in Sudan and Egypt is rainless during the northern winter, its southern parts and the highlands of Ethiopia experience heavy rain—more than 60 inches (1,520 millimetres)—during the northern summer. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by . Nile River Basin: Adaptation to Climate Change Induced Water Stress in the Nile Basin: Summary for Decision Makers. One million people affected by Nile River floods. Much of the Nile Delta is only a meter or so above sea level, and a 2014 analysis led by Assuit University geologist Ahmed Sefelnasr predicted that a half-meter rise in sea level would shrink the delta by 19 percent, an area equivalent to all of metropolitan Los Angeles. An aerial view shows the Nile river cutting through the Sudanese capital Khartoum. Battered By Climate Change, Nile Farmers Forge New Course. •Egypt depends on more than 95% of its water resources on the River Nile. For thousands of years, the river has provided a source of irrigation to transform the dry area around it into lush agricultural land. Climate change is a major risk to good development outcomes, and the World Bank Group is committed to playing . Rising global temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns could . Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent . 2020. We also used climate models to estimate how temperature and precipitation will change over the remaining century. Now, researchers at MIT have found that climate change may drastically increase the variability in Nile's annual output. "We think that climate . Global climate change could cause Africa's Lake Victoria, the world's largest tropical lake and source of the Nile River, to dry up in the next 500 years, according to new findings from a team of researchers led by the University of Houston. Climate change 'threatens Nile, Limpopo rivers'. By AGENCY. The downstream countries of the Nile River Basin are sensitive to the variability of runoff from the Ethiopian part of the basin. Climate change spells another threat as rising sea levels are set to push Mediterranean salt water deep into the fertile Nile river delta, the nation's bread basket. The average summer temperatures are around 86°F (30°C) with winter temperatures ranging between 41 and 50°F ( 5 - 10°C). Among the regions most imperiled by climate change, they barely rise to the level of . Even more imminent, the White Nile — one of the two main tributaries of the Nile — could lose its source waters in just a decade. River deltas—like those at the mouth of the Mississippi, Nile, or Ganges—barely rise above sea level. CEST2013_0488 1. Climate change also contributes to the expansion and shifting of endemic regions [10,109]. Change in temperature has affected the health, livelihoods, food productivity, water availability, and overall security of the African people. Climate change is real - the famous Nile river is drying up. Researchers predict the country's already stretched agricultural sector could shrink by as much as 47% by 2060 as a result of saltwater intrusion. Climate The Nile Basin has a high diversity in climate with greatly varied precipitation. A Fight Over the Nile Is a Preview of Climate Change Diplomacy. & Strzepek, K. Economic analysis of large-scale upstream river basin development on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia considering transient conditions, climate variability, and climate change. Water scarcity will increase as the climate continues to change The study comes amidst a 10-year dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over water supply on the Nile River. Ancient Egypt was dependent on floodwaters from the Nile River to irrigate crops that could feed society, the report . Therefore, any streamflow reduction in the Blue Nile river basin due to climate change affects water development in downstream countries. Origin of Nile River. CEST2013_0488 1. J. "This is what climate change looks like" Format News and Press Release Source. I start by synthesizing the key results from recent climate change modeling studies, which show a warming trend for the . Vulnerability of Nile Water to Climate Change One of the challenges in climate change studies is selecting the right type of bias correction methods. The project ran from 2009 to 2012, and was focused on the Nile River Basin. Without the Nile major portions of Sudan and Egypt would run out of water. Nile River, which serves needs for potable water, agriculture, industry, fish farming, power generation, inland river navigation, mining, oil and gas exploration, The first is the construction of the climate change scenarios whereby the outcomes of multiple general Climate change is real - the famous Nile river is drying up. The Gilgel Abay River and the Lake Tana are important for various socio-economic purposes. Effects of Climate Change in Egypt The future predictions of average temperature in Egypt, as a result of global warming to an increase by 4 OC in Cairo and by 3.1 to 4.7 OC in the rest of Egypt . The researchers said the findings have climate implications that extend far beyond the Nile River basin. Nile River dam dispute shows world what a fight over water security looks like As climate change continues to warm the Earth and exacerbate droughts, a dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance . For a farmer who had just been told that almost . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reported that different model projections for the Nile for later this century range from 30% more water to 78% less. The Nile River flows over 6,600 kilometers (4,100 miles) until emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. Climate change, or perhaps overgrazing, desiccated the pastoral lands of Egypt to form the Sahara Desert, possibly as long ago as 8000 B.C.E., and the inhabitants then presumably migrated to the river, where they developed a settled agricultural economy and a more centralized society. 1.Introduction. INTRODUCTION The Nile River, the longest river in the world (UNEP, 2010), extends from approximately latitude 4°S to 32°N. A fight over the world's longest river is a preview of climate change diplomacy. Egypt seeks to include transboundary water conflicts in the UN Climate Change Conference, which will be held in November in Glasgow, Scotland.. Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been locked in a bitter conflict that has spanned a decade over a dam Addis Ababa is building on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River. The Book of Genesis describes the pharaoh of Egypt having two dreams: one in which he is standing by the Nile and sees seven fat . 537 CLIMATE CHANGE, COMPETITION, AND CONFLICT ALONG THE RIVER NILE: THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM & SHIFTING INTERNATIONAL WATER LAW Salma H. Shitia* ABSTRACT Decade-long negotiations between the Arab Republic of Egypt and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia surround the decision to build the hydroelectric Egypt is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the dependence of its large and growing population on the Nile River for fresh water and its long coastline, which is already experiencing sea level rise1. Messrs Siam and Eltahir conclude . such as climate change, widespread illiteracy, and poor infrastructure. In particular, we predict and explain the future changes in interannual variability and long-term mean of the flow in Nile river. over the Upper Blue Nile basin which supplies 60% of the Nile flow. Climate Change: The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Egypt Introduction . First, we examine the role of El Niño Southern . . Today, the river continues to serve as a source of irrigation, as well as an important transportation and trade route. Climate change is primed to increase tensions over Nile water. This report presents three steps for analyzing climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources. But according to a study by Mohamed Siam and Elfatih Eltahir of MIT, potential changes to the river's flow, resulting from climate change, may add to the strain. The potential global warming impact on the extreme and mean streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) River Basin was projected for the 2050s and 2080s by three hydrological models [Nedbør-Afstrømnings Model (NAM), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and Watflood model] driven by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios of four general circulation . We analyze observations on recent change in the flow regime. Nile Region in Egypt. Garden plant diversity in the Egyptian Nile Region and effect of climate change on its conservation and ecosystem services . Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation 2,3. The overall project goal was to build the resilience of ecosystems and . A view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near Guba, Ethiopia, on . With 98% of its population living on 4% of its total land area in the Nile Valley and climate change in Botswana, GFDLCM21, A1b emissions scenario, 2080 to 2100... 106 Figure F-9. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the hydrology of the Nile River, especially the ecohydrological degradation and challenges the basin is facing, the impact of climate change on water availability and the transboundary water management issues. Egypt's fertile Nile Delta threatened by climate change. Nile River Basin. "Some of the impacts on the Nile Basin are still in uncertainty mode," Girgis continued, explaining that it still isn't known whether climate change will bring more or less water. First, they noted that projections of rainfall change for the subbasin differed substantially between the different . Gebrekidan Worku, Ermias Teferi, Amare Bantider, Yihun T. Dile. "The Nile River provides drainage for approximately 10 percent of the African continent. Egypt's farmers are going back to school to learn how to adapt to a drying land. The Nile is the natural world's great gift to human history: its annual flood delivered nourishing silt and vital water for the farmers who supported a hierarchy that founded a civilisation. INTRODUCTION The Nile River, the longest river in the world (UNEP, 2010), extends from approximately latitude 4°S to 32°N. "Our results characterize not just a small region of the upper Nile, but a much more extended part of Africa," said Ruzmaikin. The delta shoreline of the Nile River, the source of 95 percent of Egypt's water, is receding by approximately 60 feet annually. Two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared Egypt's Nile Delta to be among the top three areas on the planet most vulnerable to a rise in sea levels, and even the most . III. Rapid population growth, combined with a hike in hot and dry years, is likely to dramatically increase the number of people suffering water scarcity on the upper River Nile, climate change . Egypt does not have any specific plan to deal with the effects of climate change and global warming on its water resources and its share of the Nile River, said Mosad Qutb, director of the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate at the Center for Agricultural Research. 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